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Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19

Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning. 

Malaria in Nepal: A Spatiotemporal Study of the Disease Distribution and Challenges on the Path to Elimination

Malaria incidence (MI) has significantly declined in Nepal, and this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and drivers of MI at the ward level. Data for malaria cases were obtained from the National Surveillance System from 2013 to 2021. Data for covariates, including annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and distance to the nearest city, were obtained from publicly available sources. A Bayesian spatial model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of MI.

Therapeutic development to accelerate malaria control through intentional intervention layering

The clinical development of novel vaccines, injectable therapeutics, and oral chemoprevention drugs has the potential to deliver significant advancements in the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. These innovations could support regions in accelerating malaria control, transforming existing intervention packages by supplementing interventions with imperfect effectiveness or offering an entirely new tool.

Empowering quality education through sustainable and equitable electricity access in African schools

Although most people born this century will be educated in African schools, these schools often lack basic infrastructure, such as electricity and/or lighting. In the face of a rapidly growing school-age population in Africa, the electrification of educational facilities is not just an infrastructural challenge but also a pivotal investment in the continent’s future workforce.

Mapping fertility rates at national, sub-national, and local levels in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

Fertility rates are key indicators of population health and demographic change, influencing economic development, healthcare planning, and social policies. Understanding subnational variation in fertility rate is important for effective geographical targeting and policy prioritization. This study aimed to identify geographic variation, trends, and determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia over the past two decades.  

Risk factors associated with post-tuberculosis sequelae: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Post-tuberculosis (TB) sequelae present a significant challenge in the management of TB survivors, often leading to persistent health issues even after successful treatment. Identifying risk factors associated with post-TB sequelae is important for improving outcomes and quality of life of TB survivors. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify risk factors associated with long-term physical sequelae among TB survivors.

A global mathematical model of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control.

Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysis

Since its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025. 

Spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in Western Australia

Understanding the geospatial distribution of influenza infection and the risk factors associated with infection clustering can inform targeted preventive interventions. We conducted a geospatial analysis to investigate the spatial patterns and identify drivers of medically attended influenza infection across all age groups in Western Australia.

Spatial distribution of and socio-ecological risk factors for strongyloidiasis in Australia

Strongyloidiasis, caused by the soil-transmitted helminth Strongyloides stercoralis, remains a neglected public health issue in Australia, particularly among remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. This study aimed to map the spatial distribution of strongyloidiasis and investigate associated socioecological factors to identify high-risk areas and guide targeted interventions in Australia.